For MLB general managers, its never to early to get a feel for the summer trade market, prior to MLB’s Trade Deadline on July 31. Making deals before this time can mean one of two things for a club: either they are a contending team trying to add a player or two to put them over the top, or they are a team that has fallen out of contention and is looking to sell off their pieces in order to acquire players to build for the future.
While it is still early in the season, a quick look at the standings will show you the landscape of baseball thus far. In my opinion, the National League standings are almost set to where I believe most teams will finish the season, excluding the Pittsburgh Pirates and Miami Marlins, each of whom I believe will climb the ladder in their respective divisions. On the other hand, the American League playoff picture is much more fluid, with only one team more than 10 games back of the final Wild Card spot. The AL East is tight, and a few trades and solid weeks of play could put any one of the five teams in first place. In the AL Central, there is more space between teams, with the Cleveland Indians and Chicago White Sox at the bottom, and the Kansas City Royals, Detroit Tigers, and Minnesota Twins bunched together at the top. It is a similar story in the AL West, with the surprising Houston Astros leading the way, but being followed closely by the Los Angeles Angels and Seattle Mariners.
With certain teams in the race and others falling out, it will be soon time for GMs to decide whether their team needs to make a move or simply start building for the future. Here’s a look at some of the potential trade chips that could be on the move this summer:
P Cole Hamels, Philadelphia Phillies (4-3, 3.24 ERA, 62 strikeouts)
Hamels has long been rumored the top available arm on the market, but the Phillies and GM Ruben Amaro, Jr. have held on tight while waiting for the best offer. At first, I thought this tactic might blow up in their faces with a possibility that Hamels could lose value due to injury or poor performance, but in fact, Hamels has pitched like an ace and the rest of MLB has faced a lot of pitching injuries this season. That raises the numbers of Hamels potential suitors, and also raises his price.
Amaro will only move Hamels for a team’s top prospect, or a package of a team’s best players. As of now, it is known that the Boston Red Sox and San Diego Padres have checked in on Hamels’ availability, but have balked at the price. The entire AL East could make the move to acquire Hamels, each armed with top prospects in the game today and each with a need for an ace-caliber pitcher. The Astros could ante up and make the move if they truly believe they are contenders, while the Mariners could also pair Hamels with their own ace P Felix Hernandez. It is hard for me to imagine the Phillies moving Hamels to a team in the National League, but the team best suited to acquire Hamels, the Los Angeles Dodgers, will not budge on giving the Phillies any of their three blue-chip prospects.
All in all, I expect Hamels to be moved for the package that Amaro desires. He could be moved earlier rather than later, like P Jeff Samardzija was moved on July 12 last summer, almost three weeks prior to the deadline.
OF Carlos Gomez, Milwaukee Brewers (.278, 4 HR, 17 RBI’s)
Gomez is the Brewers’ second-best hitter behind fellow OF Ryan Braun, but still provides the club with a valuable trade chip. Milwaukee has had the wheels completely fall off in the early going, and they fired their manager less than a month ago. Although Gomez is signed through 2016, trading him now while his value is high and he still has a year left on his deal is much more attractive to teams that are trying to decide whether or not they should part with their top prospects.
Gomez is a catalyst, both in the field and in the clubhouse. He could be very valuable to a contender who needs an outfield bat, such as the New York Mets, Toronto Blue Jays, or Baltimore Orioles. All three clubs are armed with valuable top pitching prospects, which is probably something that Milwaukee would be seeking in return. With Gomez’s value still very high, its possible that the Brewers could command a team’s top prospect as a return in any deal.
OF Mark Trumbo, Arizona Diamondbacks (.279, 6 HR, 19 RBI’s)
Trumbo is an interesting case. The Diamondbacks came into the year knowing they wouldn’t contend, but vehemently denied that they would trade Trumbo. However, why would they, with Trumbo coming off an injury-plagued year that cost him half of the 2014 season?
Now, Trumbo is healthy again and showing that he can be the strong, right-handed bat in the middle of the lineup. The problem is, Trumbo isn’t a very capable defensive outfielder, and with the Diamondbacks playing in the National League, there is no DH spot in the lineup to hide Trumbo’s glove. So yes, while his offense is a necessary presence in any lineup, his defensive woes also hurt the club. With two years of arbitration left before Trumbo becomes a free agent, and a resurgent season thus far in 2015, his stock may never be higher.
Obviously, Trumbo would fit best with an American League club, and there are a variety of clubs that could use him. The Tampa Bay Rays, Toronto Blue Jays, Cleveland Indians, and Seattle Mariners could use Trumbo as a 1B/DH/OF type, and need a right-handed presence in their lineups. It will take a few prospects to pry Trumbo from the desert, but I believe a team that is desperate enough for offense will pay the price.
P Yovani Gallardo, Texas Rangers (3-6, 4.26 ERA, 34 strikeouts)
Gallardo has already been traded once this year, from the Milwaukee Brewers to the Rangers. Yet, I have a feeling the pitcher could be on the move come the Trade Deadline. He is a free agent after the season, and has struggled to pitch in the American League thus far. With the Rangers out of contention, trading Gallardo would be a step towards a better future.
A number of teams could be interested in Gallardo, who could be viewed as a cheaper, right-handed alternative for teams that are trying to acquire Cole Hamels. Excluding the Baltimore Orioles, the entire AL East would have interest in Gallardo. Teams like the St. Louis Cardinals and Pittsburgh Pirates would surely have interest, knowing that it wouldn’t cost their entire farm system to acquire him. A wild card in this trade scenario could be the Los Angeles Dodgers, who are currently dealing with severe starting pitching woes, and could be in need of a quality arm. With Gallardo not being many team’s top option, the opportunity to acquire a quality pitcher at a decent price could present itself for the Dodgers.
All in all, the playoff picture will continue to clarify itself as we get deeper into the summer, allowing us to identify the contenders and the sellers of the trade market. As the temperatures rise, the MLB season heats up, as we get deeper into the marathon season!
