Let me take you back to March 10, 2019. Cincinnati was playing for a second straight regular-season title. Facing a Houston team with just two losses on the season, the Bearcats held a 49-43 lead with just over 13 1/2 minutes to play. What followed was a Houston onslaught, outscoring the Bearcats 42-16 the rest of the game. The final score: Houston 85-Cincinnati 69. And looking back, that onslaught by Houston was a sign of things to come.
Five years later, Houston has a stranglehold on the Bearcats. Here’s why: Kelvin Sampson has built a really strong program. Watch them play. I watched their game at Baylor, and they are great because they do the fundamental things well. Jim Spanarkel, calling the game for CBS, praised their attention to detail from a shootaround prior to the game. The Cougars are what the Bearcats used to be. They could walk into any game, roll the balls out and impose their will on anybody. And what’s hard for Bearcats fans is Houston has not only been incredibly consistent in the regular season, but they’ve had a lot of March success. Four straight Sweet 16s, back-to-back Elite Eights in 2021 and 2022 and a Final Four in 2021. They play like the Bearcats used to play, dominate like they used to and have had more success in March than the Bearcats had under Bob Huggins and Mick Cronin.
The Cougars are also great because they have great players. They have experienced, really good players. When was the last time the Bearcats had a player who could go toe-to-toe with these really good Cougars teams, take over a game in crunch time? The answer to that question is Jarron Cumberland. When he was here, you felt like the Bearcats had a chance against Houston. Ever since then, the Bearcats haven’t had a player at that caliber. Houston currently has several and has had several for the last five seasons.
Name a player on the Bearcats current roster that can emerge as an alpha in a game against Houston. The only player who comes closest is Jizzle James, and he’s still inexperienced. Reminder: the Bearcats are facing the No. 1 team in the country Tuesday night, and I don’t know what there is that gives you confidence that the Bearcats can win. Mick Cronin used to say there were players who get off the bus and decide whether or not the Bearcats were going to win games. I don’t think this Bearcats team is built like that. Who is a difference maker on this team? Go back to that game five years ago, and the two programs have changed places. Not for the better for the Bearcats. Houston has built their program to where the Bearcats once were, and they have 10 straight wins over the Bearcats.
Now the Bearcats will go into Houston Tuesday night with the Cougars ranked No. 1 in the country. I was feeling weirdly optimistic about this game Monday afternoon. Then I watched Houston take it to No. 11 Baylor and thought to myself “what is there to make me believe the Bearcats can win on Tuesday night?” Maybe the Bearcats will come out with their hair on fire with nothing to lose against the top-ranked Cougars, knowing their NCAA Tournament hopes are at stake. The last matchup against Houston suggested that the Bearcats have at least restored being able to compete with the Cougas. With that, here are my players to watch and other elements to Tuesday night’s game.
1. #4 LJ Cryer, 6’1″, 200 lbs., Sr., G, Katy, Texas, Baylor Transfer
15 ppg, 2.4 rpg, 39.9 FG%, 34.3 3-PT FG%, 87.3 FT%, 30 stl, 31.6 mpg
Feb 10 @ Cincinnati: 8 pts, 2 rebs, 2-7 FG (0-4 3-PT FG), 4-5 FT, ast., TO, 17 mins
Cryer only made two shots against the Bearcats in the meeting back on February 10th, but his second shot was a crucial tough fadeaway jumper with just over a minute to play. His shot gave Houston a four-point lead, and the Cougars would hang on for a 67-62 win. Cryer only played 17 minutes in that February 10th game, plagued by four fouls. In the three games since the one at Cincinnati on Feb 10, Cryer has scored 26 points against Texas and played 43 out of 45 minutes in an overtime win at Baylor this past Saturday afternoon. A member of the preseason All Big 12 First Team, Cryer has eight 20-point games to his credit this season. But pay attention to his foul trouble. He’s been good about staying out of foul trouble this season, but he has four or more fouls in two of Houston’s last four games. One of those games was when he picked up four fouls against Cincinnati.
2. #1 Jamal Shead, 6’1″, 200 lbs., Sr., G, Manor, Texas
13.3 ppg, 3.9 rpg, 43.8 FG%, 34.3 3-PT FG%, 80% FT, 160 ast.-52 TO, 61 stl, 30.7 mpg
Feb 10 @ Cincinnati: 16 pts, 4 rebs, 6-25 FG (2-8 3-PT FG), 2-2 FT, 4 ast, stl, 38 mins
One thing the Bearcats did a good job of in the first matchup against Houston was keeping Jamal Shead in check. He only had four assists in that game, and he had to take 25 shots just to get to 16 points. Shead is third in the Big 12 in total assists at 160 and second in the Big 12 in assist-to-turnover ratio at 3.1. He has three games this season with 10 or more assists and only four with more than three turnovers. Shead enters Tuesday night’s game with double-digit points in 12 of his last 13 games.
